Abstract for: A System Dynamics Approach to Assess Global Climate Change in Quantity/Quality Water along the U.S.-Mexico Trans-Border Region

Potential impacts of Global Climate Change (GCC) in zones where water is scarce, such as along the US-Mexico border, is and will continue to be a key concern for the sustainability of humanity in the future. Despite its significant repercussions for the development/sustainability of societies living in already arid land, the effect of GCC on water quality has not been studied fully. This paper aims to estimate variation in quality/quantity water due to climate change by assessing its impact on community development in the US-Mexico border region of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Water Basin. To estimate variation in different water quality parameters, we use a conservative model with most probable scenarios for temperature/precipitation behavior produced by the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change. Results are then used to analyze current/expected economic and social conditions in the borderland region revealing real water demands and guiding necessary actions for a productive society. To understand the complex interaction of factors governing the quantity/quality of water and their effects on social and economic conditions, a system dynamic model is proposed to simulate, for a 70-year period, policies and decisions that can improve conditions, prevent risks leading to social unrest, and hinder economic development.