Abstract for: Integrating System Dynamics in a Strategic Foresight Process for Firms in Production Networks

Firms have long used strategic foresight to adjust to fast changing business environments and increasing uncertainties. While strategic foresight on a corporate level is rather common, approaches addressing the network perspective are still rare. Documented attempts within the last few years to combine different foresight methods indicate a need for integrated approaches. Methods to communicate and discuss future thoughts between strategists and decision makers engaged in foresight processes gain importance. The goal of this paper is threefold. First, to present a strategic foresight approach that evaluates key drivers of future changes. This evaluation is conducted based on a firm's business model by considering the network perspective. Second, the application of the approach is shown with focus on the development of a system dynamics model during a group model building process. Third, a generic system dynamics model for performing strategic foresight in production networks is introduced.