Abstract for: Modelling the Nigeria’s Electric Power System to Evaluate its Long-Term Performance

The study presents a System Dynamic model of the Nigeria electric power system. The model was developed with a view to using it to evaluate the long-term performance of the system. Both primary and secondary sources were employed to collect the system’s baseline information. Results from this formed input to develop a four-sector-model in Vensim software for the long-term evaluation of the NEPS. Leverage points in the model were identified from the validated model using data from 2005 to 2009 in the Base Run. The system behaviour, based on two other scenarios (Scenario 1 representing improved basic level of consumption and Scenario 2 representing industrialization target), was then evaluated on a timeframe of 50 years starting from 2009. The study concluded that Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Economic Growth Rate (EGR) were the most critical policy leverage intervention points for NEPS improvement within the next 50 years.