Abstract for: System Dynamics Perspective Applied in Aviation Business Planning

With the global and dynamic nature of commercial aviation, there are many factors including economy, nature, politics, government and corporate entities affecting the industry’s current and future status. Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) Marketing and Strategy group is constantly assessing a variety of business issues ranging from near term implications of the business cycle on airplane deliveries to the long term outlook for a new airplane. To address these issues we depend on the analytical concepts including lead and lag effects, feedback processes, and entity behaviors. The purpose of this presentation is to offer an overview of two major SD modeling efforts at BCA epitomizing these challenges. Recently, BCA initiated the development of a SD model for assessing the implications of a) government security policies affecting commercial aviation, and b) short and long-term business cycle disruptions on Boeing’s airplane delivery plans. Currently, the best of the two efforts are being combined into a world commercial aviation model for assessing disruptions to the industry. We anticipate that SD discipline, combined with econometrics and other analytical tools, will continue to be a critical part of BCA’s strategy analysis process.