Abstract for: Exploring the Future of Wind-Powered Energy

Although there is a trend towards more sustainable energy system, the future of renewable energy is still deeply uncertain. The future of each renewable energy technology –such as wind power– is even more uncertain. So what may be, in the presence of deep uncertainty, the future of wind power? This question is addressed by means of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis: parametric uncertainties, structural uncertainties, and model uncertainties (different System Dynamics models) related to this question are explored and resulting ensembles of plausible futures are analysed. Analysing parametric and structural uncertainties in isolation may not be thorough enough for a complete uncertainty analysis. So, model uncertainty should also be considered to be able to explore all plausible futures. The main purpose of this paper is to illustrate the exploration of model uncertainties, together with parametric and structural uncertainties.