Abstract for: Analysis of malaria trends and policy options for sub Saharan Africa through the Malaria Management Model

The use of DDT for Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) in recent years has proven to be a cost effective way of combating malaria in sub Saharan Africa. A variety of alternatives to DDT for IRS exist. However, their costs and benefits are insufficiently understood. This is particularly true when it comes to evaluating vector control strategies in an integrated way, i.e., also in terms of their broader socio-economic development impacts. The Malaria Management Model project estimated the costs associated with the eradication of malaria for different combinations of vector control interventions and for different time horizons. For this purpose it developed a computer based simulation model that is based on an extensive database and calibrated for the aggregated sub Saharan African region. It studies long-term (1970-2050) trends of malaria diffusion and the implications for socio-economic development. Model simulations showed that for all policy-scenario combinations, the average yearly expenditures for malaria prevention were much lower than the possible average yearly gain in GDP from eradicating malaria. Model simulations also revealed that the additional costs of substituting DDT for IRS create a series of benefits as well as avoided risks that overall more than offset the costs.