Abstract for: Using System Dynamics Methodology to Generate Insights: An Example from Singaporean Population Health

Singapore is one of the world’s most rapidly ageing nations, and the country is facing a number of health care policy issues, particularly including the care and treatment of ageing-related dementia. To help inform policymakers about dementia treatment and care, we constructed a System Dynamics model that addresses changing population characteristics, incidence and prevalence of dementia, and a population-level natural history of this pernicious condition. This article (a) describes how a discrepancy between measured census data (reference modes) and simulated population led to improved estimates of the population, (b) introduces a novel and generalizable means to simulate how the prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe dementia is likely to change over the next 20 years, and (c) provides comparisons between two means of prevalence estimation.