Abstract for: The New Flu Pandemic (A/H1N1): An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the Swine Flu. The Exploratory System Dynamics model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and to perform a rough-cut policy exploration. Later, the model was also used to further develop and illustrate the use of Exploratory System Dynamics models for Exploratory Modelling and Analysis. The paper starts with a description of the exploratory System Dynamics model, followed by a discussion of the analyses performed and results obtained. Then, the use of the model as a scenario generator for Exploratory Modelling and Analysis is discussed and illustrated. Finally some methodological and applied conclusions are formulated. A corresponding ‘hot’ testing/teaching case used at Delft University of Technology is included in the appendix.