Abstract for: A Simulation System for HPAI Diseases Control

As Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) had become an issue in Korea, Korean Government has decided to make a complete defense system of HPAI using system dynamics and agent based modeling techniques after a preliminary research. This paper summarizes the simulation part of the Korean Government efforts on HPAI. KAHIS (Korea Animal Health Integration System) is designed to help government agencies to perform their HPAI (and other animal diseases) related tasks on their computers. The simulation part of KAHIS(KAHIS-Sim in short) is designed to support tasks such as HPAI possibility evaluation, retrospective analysis, diffusion analysis, defense line analysis, and social cost evaluation. KAHIS-Sim consists of a user interface, and two models (AIR Model; and AID Model), which are programmed using Vensim DSS. AIR Model forecasts the possibility of HPAI occurrence for 4967 regions and more than 20,000 farms in Korea. AID Model simulates the diffusion processes of HPAI and estimates the economic impacts. The user interface summarizes and shows the simulation results using geometry information system. After test trials of the system, a few issues have been raised, including the simulation time, lacking data, and linkage with the weather forecast. Nevertheless, they have decided to use the system as references for their tasks. They have planned to upgrade the system for another four years.