Abstract for: Scarcity of Minerals and Metals: A Generic Exploratory System Dynamics Model

Possible short, medium and/or long term scarcity of minerals/metals may actually pose a threat to modern societies. Its potentially disruptive societal consequences qualify this issue for exploration from a world/regional security point of view. Hence, the forces of System Dynamics modelling and simulation and Exploratory Modelling and Analysis are joined in this paper to explore the dynamic complexity of potential mineral/metal scarcity under deep uncertainty and to create useful scenarios for inter/national risk assessment.