Abstract for: Sensitivity Analysis of System Dynamics Models by Behavior Pattern Measures
Parameters of system dynamics models are subject to uncertainty, so sensitivity analysis of simulation results is important for the reliability of such models. Since system dynamics is a behavior-oriented simulation discipline, sensitivity of behavior pattern measures -such as equilibrium level or oscillation amplitude- to the model parameters should be evaluated in order to explore the effect of parameter uncertainty on the behavior pattern of the simulation. In this study, a procedure for pattern sensitivity analysis of system dynamics models is suggested. Then this procedure is applied to a project management model (Taylor and Ford, 2006) and two oscillatory system dynamics models using regression method. Our results indicate that pattern measures of output behavior are appropriate in analyzing the parameter sensitivity of system dynamics models.