Abstract for: Dynamics of CO2 Mitigation in Electric Power Industry Through Replacements and Early Retirements

EP industry is expected to play a central role in climate change mitigation in many countries. With its rich clean energy potential, Turkey is a particular example. Being a developing economy, Turkey contributes to about one percent of global GHG emissions, and its per capita emissions are equal to and now exceeding the world average. The EP industry in Turkey is responsible for 28 percent of the national CO2 emissions. If a viable and sustainable global climate treaty develops in the near future, as a party to the UNFCCC, Turkey will have to assume national abatement targets and face the challenge of shifting its heavily fossil fuel based EP production towards renewable energy sources (RES), decentralized generation (DG) and increasing efficiency gains. In this paper, we create a dynamic simulation model of EP industry in Turkey so as to analyze the options for CO2 mitigation through replacements with cleaner energy resources. The model focuses on the supply side of EP sector and represents the investment, production, pricing and financing structures of coal, gas, hydro, wind and solar power plants as well as the existing natural potential for the renewable resources.