Abstract for: System Dynamics Model for Transportation Infrastructure Investment and Cultural Heritage Tourism Development

A system dynamics model is proposed to analyze the impacts of transportation infrastructure investment on the tourism development of Xidi and Hongcun World Heritage Villages in southern Anhui province, China. It is shown that both the short and long term impacts of transportation infrastructure investment on tourism development could be well predicted by the model. To achieve maximum tourism revenue, both villages attempt to take an aggressive strategy to continuously increase transportation infrastructure investment and exploit all available land. According to the scenarios results from the simulation, several other development strategies are proposed as well as the prediction of the perspective of the two villages 20 years later: with all available land being exploited, the sites are still full of tourists that are comprised mainly of mass tourists.