Abstract for: The system dynamic study of regional development of Manas Basin Under the constraints of water resources

The arid Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China, similar to the other arid regions is facing the problem of water constraints. Within the social economic and political systems, growth and expansion has always been the key driving force while it occasionally is forced to slow down or even decline due to the water constraints. To date, the growing populations, industry and agriculture water demand has largely been met by improving and expanding reservoir capacity, by mining fossil groundwater resources, and by improving the water use efficiency. However, bringing future demand in line with available supplies will require increasingly efficient water management practices and greater conservation of water resources. A system dynamics approach has been used to develop a model to evaluate the sustainability of the water resource system in the Manas River basin. The study shows that the technical solutions on the improvement of water supply and the improvement of water use efficiency are not the fundamental solutions. Acknowledging the water capacity and changing a growth orientated value system is crucial in the sustainability of Manas River Basin.