Abstract for: Policy Analysis for the Transformation of Switzerland's Stock of Buildings. A Small Model Approach

This paper reports on preliminary work on a small System Dynamics model of Switzerland's stock of residential, multifamily buildings over the time period 1975 to 2100. It is used to study the dynamic implications of carrying out different shares of renovation strategies on the composition of the stock of buildings. Of particular interest is the question, how the mostly non-energy-efficient stock of buildings can be transformed to a state of higher energy-efficiency. The model is empirically grounded and it was tested in collaboration with experts. The model is used to analyze three ideal-typical scenarios. Model analysis indicates that ambitious energy standards in building codes are of central importance, that the scope of said standards should be broadened to include as many situations as possible and that non-energy-efficient renovations should be avoided. Making renovations mandatory seems a less viable scenario. As the decarbonization of heating systems emerges as an interesting alternative we propose two regulations which could achieve a thorough transformation of Switzerland's stock of buildings.