Abstract for: System Dynamics Analysis of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Shandong Province of China
Water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC) is an important metric for regional water management in China. Shandong Province of China faces a serious water shortage if WRCC is not managed at a sustainable level. This study focuses on applying system dynamics methodology to evaluate different development scenarios and their associated WRCC for Shandong. System characteristics of local water resources and demand in Shandong are captured and modeled using system dynamics within VENSIM software. The dynamic model of Shandong’s WRCC consists of 5 subsystems: agricultural development, population growth, industry and tertiary industry, water resources, and water pollution. Historical data are used to calibrate model parameters. Impact on the WRCC is assessed through three growth scenarios: modest industrial growth, aggressive industrial growth, growth combined with wastewater recycles. Based on simulation results, WRCC that most likely can sustain economic growth without overstressing the water supply is one with modest growth combined with wastewater recycle.