Abstract for: The Concerted Run on the DSB Bank: An Exploratory System Dynamics Approach

In this paper, an Exploratory System Dynamics model of a concerted run is first of all presented. The immediate cause for modelling a concerted bank run was the mediatised call for a run on the DSB bank. This Exploratory System Dynamics model was developed the morning of the call for the bank run, before the start of the ensuing bank crisis, in order to quickly foster understanding of possible dynamic behaviours of ‘concerted’ bank runs and to perform rough-cut policy/strategy analyses. The model is subsequently used to illustrate the combination of Exploratory System Dynamics modelling and Exploratory Modelling and Analysis, also called Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis. The paper starts with a short overview of the DSB Bank crisis, the description of the Exploratory System Dynamics model and some quick exploratory analyses. The model is then used as a scenario generator for Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis in order to analyse and deal with deep uncertainties surrounding the issue and its modelling (parameters and functions). The paper ends with some applied and methodological conclusions, policy recommendations, and venues for future work.