Abstract for: The Dynamic Analysis of a Simplified Centralised Supply Chain and Delay Effects

This paper presents analysis of the behaviour of a model of a centralised supply chain. The research was conducted within the manufacturing sector and involved the breathing equipment manufacturer Draeger Safety, UK. A simplified model of the Draeger Safety, UK centralised supply chain has been developed and validated. Long lead time impact has been simulated as additional production delay. Uncertainty in forecasting has been represented in terms of information delay. Simulation and analysis have been performed using System Dynamics, non-linear dynamics and control theory. The findings suggest that destructive oscillations of inventory could be generated by internal decision making practices. The primary route to the instability depends on the structure of the system.