Abstract for: Linking clinical workforce skill mix planning to health and health care dynamics

Current health workforce planning methods are inadequate for the complexity of the task. Most approaches treat the workforce supply of individual health professions in isolation and avoid quantifying the impact of changes in skills mix, either planned or unplanned. The causes and consequences of task delegation and task substitution between or within health professions is particularly important in handling workforce shortages in developing countries and understanding and planning possible responses to both rapid catastrophic health demands and slower background trends in their social and political environment. As well as the contextual environment, interactions and delays in supplying and balancing health resources and configuring clinical services are required to address the geographic, profession-specific and quality imbalances. These supply side resources include knowledge and research, skills and attitudes of clinicians, buildings and equipment, medications and medical technologies, information and communications technologies and any other methods and models to improve the provision of clinical services. The interaction between demand and supply could adjust for feedbacks of health services outcomes, policies and governance on population expectations, funding, political and social supports and explicitly link these to clinical workforce supply in a useful, rigorous and relevant tool. The challenge is capture the relevant essence of the dynamic complexity of health and healthcare for this purpose.