Abstract for: Regulatory Impact Assessment for the Transportation Sector – Case Study Germany

Currently, there is a discussion on introduction of legal instruments for reduction of CO2-emissions within the transportation sector. However, several instruments – on threshold as well as on economic basis – exist. While some general information on advantages and disadvantages of these instruments is available, the impact of such measures on very complex systems like the transportation sector is not known in advance. In order to anticipate intended and especially unintended impacts and to avoid trial-and-error approaches when implementing legal measures, a model is developed aiming at an analysis of several legal instruments from a political point of view. With help of this model, political decision makers are able to analyze impact of their decisions, and thus the decision making process can be improved. The model consists of several modules: a module of the vehicle market, the vehicle stock and its aging chain, the resulting emissions as well as a management simulator for political measures. The developed model is applied to the case study of the German transportation sector. Several scenarios are analyzed, and recommendations are deduced for political decision makers.