Paper present a system dynamics approach for modeling mobile service competitive market and forecasting market development. The model includes dynamic competition between operators. Pricing policy, service quality, subscriber base, potential subscribers, marketing, etc influence their number of subscribers.
The task of defining the market share carrying capacity to forecast sales is described. The method for the saturation level identification is considered and the optimal control problem is formulated and solved. Actual data from several regions of Russia are used in this paper.