Here, a systems dynamics approach combines the environmental, economic and social aspects of intensive shrimp farming to construct a sustainability forecast. Intensive shrimp farming threatens to cause irreversible damage to water and land resources. High initial investments required are risky to small start-up farmers as ponds are prone to self contamination within a few years. This study is based in Ninh Thuan, one of the poorest regions in Vietnam. Since 1999, local people started to turn to intensive shrimp farming for quick profits. Causal loop diagrams presented focus on the individual shrimp farms and their collective effect at the municipal level. Modelling on the environmental aspect indicates that the current practice of intensive shrimp farming is not sustainable for Ninh Thuan. A combination of lowered stocking densities, pond cleaning and limitation on the land area converted to shrimp ponds will be beneficial for the local community in the long term.