Effects-based Operations (EBO) is becoming the centerpiece of Western military thinking. The concept is based on influencing the behavior of adversary complex adaptive systems (such as terrorist networks) in dynamic environments. Mission analysis is the foundation of campaign planning. This paper suggests a process to improve how campaign planners identify effects necessary to yield a desired endstate during EBO mission analysis. The process is based on using a modified version of Soft Systems Methodology to structure the problem by providing planners a high-level initial understanding of the dynamic complexity associated with 4th Generation Warfare threats. Planners use this understanding to identify and diagnose specific adversary behavior inconsistent with the directed endstate. Potential system changes to modify problematic behavior are next identified and debated. Finally, the changes are converted into “effects” that serve as the input into more detailed planning efforts. The process uses group learning and shared understanding as a “hedge” against the ambiguity associated with 21st Century military planning.