CWS Reunification  Interface  3_24_18 km
5ac1830e257f4edcbec699204e84dea6
isee systems, inc.
Stella Architect
200
48
12
1
dmnl
unitless
mo
month
Initial_in_home
Reunifying
Reopening_cases
Children_placed_in_home
Getting_separated
In_home_case_closing
children
Initial_OOH
Getting_separated
Children_placed_in_OOH
Reunifying
OOH_case_closing
children
Children being removed from home and placed into foster care
(In_home*
(1Proportion_in_home_cases_closingProportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers)/AT_to_get_separated)
children/months
Children returning home after spending time in foster care
(Out_of_home*(Proportion_of_OOH_children_reunifying+Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers))/Ave_time_OOH
children/months
Cases closing when child is in home
(In_home*(Proportion_in_home_cases_closing+Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers)/AT_no_longer_need_services)
children/months
Cases closing when child is in foster care
((Out_of_home*(Prop_children_in_OOH_case_closing))/AT_OOH_case_closing)
children/months
Initial_children_closed_cases
OOH_case_closing
In_home_case_closing
Referred_but_case_closed_immediately
Leaving_system_permanently
Reopening_cases
children
cases remain closed for two years and children leave system permanently
Closed_cases*(1Proportion_needing_services_again)/AT_leaving_cases_closed
children/months
Cases reopening (another investigation) after being closed
(Closed_cases*Proportion_needing_services_again)/AT_to_need_services
children/months
Half of cases that were closed are rereported, but the number that get reinvestigated is half of 50%. Therefore, the proportion of cases closed that reopen are 25%.
.25
dmnl
AT needing services when case reopens
24
months
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month*Proportion_placed_in_home
children/months
AT for IH case to close
3
months
AJPH paper (JonsonReid) was used to derive the number of months it takes before children permanently leave the system.
12*11
months
427000
children
54200000
children
The average cost of a child in the child welfare system in home per month.
200
dollars/children/month
The total dollars per month spent on children who are housed in home.
In_home*Ave_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
dollars/months
The average cost of a child in out of home placement in the child welfare system per month.
1000
dollars/children/month
The total dollars spent for children in out of home placement per month.
Out_of_home*Ave_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
dollars/months
The total costs of out of home and in home placement per month used in the child welfare system.
Total_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month+Total_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
dollars/months
Effect of vouchers on in home cases closing flow rate
= step function at Month 12 to increase case closure rate
Effect_of_vouchers_on_IH_cases_closing+STEP(Effect_of_vouchers_on_IH_cases_closing*Effect_size_of_vouchersEffect_of_vouchers_on_IH_cases_closing, 12)
dmnl
88% of in home cases are closed each month. (Based on NSCAW data).
.88
dmnl
2
months
Effect of voucher on reunification flow rate
= step function at Month 12 to increase reunification rate
Effect_of_OOH_on_reunifying+STEP(Effect_of_OOH_on_reunifying*Effect_size_of_vouchersEffect_of_OOH_on_reunifying, 12)
dmnl
average time spent in foster care
3
months
1400000
children
Effect of vouchers on separatino to foster care flow rate
= step function at month 12 to reduce separation rate
Effect_of_in_home_on_separation+STEP(Effect_of_in_home_on_separation*Effect_size_of_vouchersEffect_of_in_home_on_separation, 12)
dmnl
melissa says .2 to .4% of kids get placed directly ooh in first time reports
0.02
dmnl/months
Supply * demand
Housing_vouchers*Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH/Average_time_to_allocate_vouchers
vouchers/months
This should be 0 for Base Run and Experiment 1, change to 1000/month for experiments 2 and 3
Create delay function so that adding vouchers (intervention) does not start until Month 12
STEP(Vouchers_added_per_month, 12)
vouchers/months
65
New_vouchers
Vouchers_returning
Voucher_program_starting
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home
vouchers
New vouchers being added to the system each month
Vouchers_per_month_being_added
vouchers/months
Supply * demand
Housing_vouchers*Probability_of_allocating_to_IH/Average_time_to_allocate_vouchers
vouchers/months
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_children_per_month*Out_of_home
vouchers/months
Vouchers needed per OOH children per month, divided by effect of homelessness prevention (e.g. reduce vouchers needed)
.4
vouchers/families/month
Vouchers_needed_per_IH_child_per_month*In_home
vouchers/months
Vouchers needed per IH children per month, divided by effect of homelessness prevention (e.g. reduce vouchers needed)
.16
vouchers/families/months
Total number of children who are referred to child welfare each month
3400000/12
children
Cases closing immediately after referral
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month*Proportion_of_cases_closing_immediately
children/months
majority of cases (68%) close immediately after investigation
.68
dmnl/months
30% of cases referred to child welfare remain open but child stays home (not plcaed in foster care)
.3
dmnl/months
the majority (90%) of children in foster care eventual reunify (return home)
.9
dmnl
Allocating vouchers to OOH cases over demand from OOH cases = proportion of met demand for OOH cases
SAFEDIV(Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH, Demand_from_FC, 1)
dmnl
Proportion of IH cases closing due to receiving vouchers = function of demand for housing met and the effect size of vouchers
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_case_close"*Proportion_of_demand_met_for_in_home
dmnl
Allocating vouchers to in home cases over demand from IH cases
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home/Demand_from_in_home
dmnl
Proportion of children in foster care who reunify due to vouchers = function of housing demand met and the effect size of vouchers on reunification
"LP_resources__OOH_to_Reunifying"*Proportion_of_demand_met_for_OOH
dmnl
Children being placed immediately into foster care upon investigated
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month*Proportion_placed_OOH
children/months
$14000 is the total cost per family to receive a voucher.
We divide this by 12 to get a per month cost.
(14000/12)
dollars/vouchers/months
Cost per month multipled by total number of vouchers
Housing_vouchers*Cost_of_vouchers_per_month
dollars/month
small portion of cases (10%) close while child is placed out of home  e.g. cannot be reunified
.1
dmnl
3
months
Pergamit, Cunningham, & Hanson, 2017
 standardized ITT effect size of reunification for OOH cases = 0.376
Gubist et al., 2016 (FOS 3year report)
 ITT effect size of reunification = 0.12
.38
dmnl
Pergamit, Cunningham, & Hanson, 2017
 standardized ITT effect size for IH cases substantiated rereport: 0.44
Shinn, Brown, & Gubits, 2016
 permanent subsidies reduced foster care placement in intact families by 3 percentage points
Gubits et al., 2016 (FOS 3year report)
 ITT effect size of at least one child in family placed in foster care in past 6 months = 0.05
 ITT effect size of formal child separation that began after random assignment = 5.8
.2
dmnl
Pergamit, Cunningham, & Hanson, 2017
 standardized ITT effect size for IH case closure = 0.878
.88
dmnl
Total_CWS_Costs+Total_cost_of_vouchers
Dollars
Total time horizon
248
Months
Total_costs_to_CWS_per_month*Total_Months
Dollars
Total_cost_of_vouchers_per_month*Total_Months
Dollars
Proportion of children who remain in home (are not placed into foster care) due to receiving vouchers = function of the proportion of housing need met and the effect size of vouchers
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_in_home*"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_separation"
dmnl
CWS costs accumulated across the simulation
= costs associated with children in home and out of home, does NOT include costs of vouchers
1
Dollars_per_month_without_vouchers
Dollars
Total CWS costs across the time horizon
Total_CWS_Costs/Total_Months
dollars/month
Accumulated costs of vouchers across the simulation
1
Voucher_costs_per_month
Dollars
Total voucher costs accumulating across the time horizon
Total_cost_of_vouchers/Total_Months
dollars/month
Proportion of children remaining in home due to vouchers * total number of children in home = number of children NOT placed out of home due to vouchers
Proportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers*In_home
Children
Proportion of the children OOH reuniting due to vouchers * total children OOH = kids who reunified due to vouchers
Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers*Out_of_home
Children
Number of children who reunify, stay home, or have cases closed due to vouchers multiplied by the costs of CWS involvement per child
((Children_reunifying_due_to_vouchers+Children_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers)*Ave_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month)+
(Children_with_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers*Ave_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month)
Dollars/month
We aren't sure how to do this...
Accumulated_savings_to_CWS/Voucher_costs_accumulated
dmnl
Base run: ES = 1 (BAU)
Experiment 1: ES = 2 (doubled effect sizes)
1
dmnl
Savings accumulated across the simulation
1
Savings_per_month
Dollars
Savings to CWS per month
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
dollars/month
6
Months
In_home*Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Children
SAFEDIV(Savings_per_month, Voucher_costs_per_month)
dmnl
Getting_separated + In_home_case_closing
Children/Months
OOH_case_closing + Reunifying
Children/Months
SAFEDIV(Reunifying, Sum_of_OOH_outflows, 1)
dmnl
Getting_separated/Sum_of_IH_outflows
dmnl
2.9
Children/Families
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_family_per_month/Average_children_per_families
Vouchers/children/months
Vouchers_needed_per_in_home_family_per_month/Average_children_per_families
Vouchers/Children/Months
Housing_vouchers*Percent_voucher_turnover
vouchers/months
.05
dmnl/Months
1Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH
dmnl
Initial_probability_of_allocating_to_OOH
Net_change_in_probability
dmnl
Former version:
((Max_probabilityProbability_of_allocating_to_OOH)/Max_probability)*
(Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH*Rate_of_increasing_probabilityProbability_of_allocating_to_OOH)/Average_time_to_change_probability
((Max_probabilityProbability_of_allocating_to_OOH)/Max_probability)*
(Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH*Rate_of_shifting_priority_to_in_home_casesProbability_of_allocating_to_OOH)/Average_time_to_change_probability
dmnl/Months
1+STEP(0, 12)
dmnl
24
Months
.5
dmnl
((Max_vouchersHousing_vouchers)/Max_vouchers)*Vouchers_per_month_being_released
vouchers/months
100
Vouchers/Months
20000
Vouchers
.33
dmnl
In_home_case_closing/Sum_of_IH_outflows
dmnl
0
Vouchers/Month
Proportion_needing_services_again
Reopening_cases
AT_to_need_services
Reopening_cases
AT_no_longer_need_services
In_home_case_closing
In_home
In_home_case_closing
In_home
Getting_separated
Out_of_home
Reunifying
Closed_cases
Reopening_cases
Closed_cases
Leaving_system_permanently
AT_leaving_cases_closed
Leaving_system_permanently
Total_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
Ave_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
Total_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
Total_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
Ave_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
Total_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
Total_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
Total_costs_to_CWS_per_month
Total_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
Total_costs_to_CWS_per_month
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing
In_home_case_closing
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing
Getting_separated
AT_to_get_separated
Getting_separated
Proportion_needing_services_again
Leaving_system_permanently
Ave_time_OOH
Reunifying
Vouchers_per_month_being_added
New_vouchers
Demand_from_FC
Demand_from_in_home
Proportion_of_cases_closing_immediately
Referred_but_case_closed_immediately
Proportion_placed_in_home
Children_placed_in_home
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_of_OOH_children_reunifying
Reunifying
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_OOH
Demand_from_FC
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_OOH
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
In_home_case_closing
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_in_home
Demand_from_in_home
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_in_home
Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers
Reunifying
Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_placed_OOH
Children_placed_in_OOH
Cost_of_vouchers_per_month
Total_cost_of_vouchers_per_month
Referred_but_case_closed_immediately
Out_of_home
OOH_case_closing
Prop_children_in_OOH_case_closing
OOH_case_closing
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month
Children_placed_in_home
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month
Children_placed_in_OOH
AT_OOH_case_closing
OOH_case_closing
Effect_of_OOH_on_reunifying
"LP_resources__OOH_to_Reunifying"
Effect_of_in_home_on_separation
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_separation"
Effect_of_vouchers_on_IH_cases_closing
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_case_close"
Total_cost_of_vouchers_per_month
Total_CWS_Costs
Total_cost_of_vouchers
Total_CWS_Costs
Total_Costs_Overall
Total_cost_of_vouchers
Total_Costs_Overall
Proportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Getting_separated
Proportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Total_Months
Total_CWS_Costs
Children_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Children_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Children_reunifying_due_to_vouchers
Children_reunifying_due_to_vouchers
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Voucher_costs_per_month
Dollars_per_month_without_vouchers
Savings_per_month
Effect_size_of_vouchers
"LP_resources__OOH_to_Reunifying"
Effect_size_of_vouchers
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_separation"
Effect_size_of_vouchers
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_case_close"
Dollars_per_month_without_vouchers
Voucher_costs_per_month




















































































































Housing_vouchers
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH
Housing_vouchers
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home
Average_time_to_allocate_vouchers
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH
Average_time_to_allocate_vouchers
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home
Children_with_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Children_with_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Return_on_Investment
Return_on_Investment
Monthly_ROI
Monthly_ROI
Rate_of_reunification
Sum_of_OOH_outflows
Rate_of_reunification
Rate_of_separation
Sum_of_IH_outflows
Rate_of_separation
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_children_per_month
Demand_from_FC
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_family_per_month
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_children_per_month
Average_children_per_families
Vouchers_needed_per_OOH_children_per_month
Average_children_per_families
Vouchers_needed_per_IH_child_per_month
Vouchers_needed_per_in_home_family_per_month
Vouchers_needed_per_IH_child_per_month
Vouchers_needed_per_IH_child_per_month
Demand_from_in_home
Percent_voucher_turnover
Vouchers_returning
Housing_vouchers
Vouchers_returning
Probability_of_allocating_to_IH
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_home
Allocating_vouchers_to_children_in_OOH
Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH
Net_change_in_probability
Rate_of_shifting_priority_to_in_home_cases
Net_change_in_probability
Average_time_to_change_probability
Net_change_in_probability
Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH
Probability_of_allocating_to_IH
Max_probability
Net_change_in_probability
Vouchers_per_month_being_released
Voucher_program_starting
Max_vouchers
Voucher_program_starting
Housing_vouchers
Voucher_program_starting
Total_Months
Total_cost_of_vouchers
Rate_of_in_home_cases_closing
Rate_of_in_home_cases_closing
Vouchers_added_per_month
Vouchers_per_month_being_added
In_home
Out_of_home
Out_of_home
In_home
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_case_close"
"LP_resources__OOH_to_Reunifying"
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_OOH
Proportion_of_demand_met_for_in_home
"LP_Vouchers__In_home_on_separation"
Total_number_of_children_investigated_by_child_welfare_per_month
Housing_vouchers
Total_cost_of_vouchers_per_month
Total_costs_to_CWS_per_month
Proportion_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Proportion_OOH_reuniting_due_to_vouchers
In_home
Out_of_home
Children_reunifying_due_to_vouchers
Children_staying_in_home_due_to_vouchers
Total_cost_of_vouchers
Total_CWS_Costs
Savings_to_CWS_per_month
Total_Months
Total_Months
Proportion_in_home_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Children_with_cases_closing_due_to_vouchers
Accumulated_savings_to_CWS
Voucher_costs_accumulated
Voucher_costs_per_month
Savings_per_month
Reunifying
Getting_separated
Ave_cost_for_children_in_home_per_month
Ave_cost_for_children_OOH_per_month
Probability_of_allocating_to_OOH
In_home_case_closing
Sum_of_IH_outflows