Abstract for:An Explanation of Oscillating Cashflows Experienced by Ugandan Smallholder Farmers: The First Use of a Model to Simulate the Effects of Trader Business Strategies on Farmer Livelihoods
The agricultural sector is a staple of Uganda's economy. However, many smallholder farmers experience volatile cashflows around crop cycles. The US Agency for International Development is working to help farmers access to agricultural knowledge, goods, and services through commodity traders and other market actors. The system dynamics model described in this paper simulates transactional relationships between farmers and traders. Through sensitivity analysis, it is evident that oscillations in farmer cashflow are caused by concentrated costs and production delays that account for the time it takes crops to grow. This model will be used to test and explain the effects of different trader business strategies on the stability of farmer livelihoods. Ultimately, results will inform the design of future USAID programs and impact evaluation strategies.