Abstract for:Dynamics of Migration: Population Growth, Food Security, and Water Resource Management in the Nile River Basin
The purpose of our study is to examine the interactive relationships among water resources, food production, and population on migratory patterns within the Nile River Basin. Insofar as the population of the African continent is projected to reach two billion persons by 2050, 70% of whom are subsistence farmers, changes in water resources could result in widespread human displacement. Historical data are drawn on the World Bank to provide reference modes of these key state variables. Our model depicts an overshoot and collapse behavior of the population of the Nile River Basin, which is driven by the structure of the relationship between population and resources. Results from our study provide a plausible venue through which to re-examine African Union strategies for informing continental early warning systems.