Abstract for:Modelling Impacts of Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Responses in Oil Refineries in India
This study evaluates the impact of climate change induced risks such as reduced water availability and temperature increase on an oil refinery’s throughput using the principles of heat and mass balance, waste water treatment and petroleum engineering. The methodology used is system dynamics modelling. The model developed also serves as a decision support tool to assess the impact of various adaptation responses towards reduced water availability. A quantifiable framework (computed outside the SD model) has also been provided to evaluate the financial impact of sustained reduction in make-up water availability in terms of the loss of profits as well as recovered profits under various adaptation responses. For the refinery being modelled, a 5% drop in makeup freshwater availability results in a crude throughput loss of 5.2%, while implementation of adaptation responses such as increasing collection efficiency of effluents to the IETP and increasing the IETP capacity to treat 100% of the effluents will result in a 50% lower throughput loss compared to the no-adaptation scenario. The model also evaluates the impact of temperature rise on the additional make up water required for the cooling circuit.