Abstract for:Simulating transport and societal effects of automated vehicles
Progress in information and communication technology allows automation levels that were a decade ago only the domain of sci-fi films. Despite this there is still no consent whether automated driving will happen in form of private cars, shared fleets or integrated into public transport. Changes might happen evolutionary or revolutionary. Expectations concerning potential benefits are high. Despite high uncertainty policy makers require information about effects and political leverages.
Part of the EU funded project CityMobil was simulating five different technologies in four European cities: inner city cybercar, cybercar public transport feeder, personal rapid transit, high tech bus and dual mode vehicles. Results show that automated vehicles integrated into public transport have a potential for strengthening public transport. Depending on the scheme size city wide effects can be small. Privately owned automated vehicles lead to an increase in car mileage travelled.
The national research project SAFiP develops scenarios using different scenario technics and methods of fore- and backcasting and assesses measures and policy instruments. As part of this MARS will be revised and actualised. As a first step detailed causal loop diagrams identifying the connection between automated vehicles and attractiveness and use of different means of transport have been developed.