Abstract for:Participatory System Dynamics Modelling for Adaptation to Extreme Hydrological Events under Conditions of Climate Change
A generic integrative modelling approach to incorporate multidisciplinary knowledge on essential drivers of a decision context is applied to adaptation to extreme hydrological events in a water-constrained region under conditions of climate change. The Interdisciplinary Knowledge Integration (IKI) is illustrated with a case study of the Júcar River Basin, Spain. Qualitative and quantitative system dynamics modelling is based on co-creation of knowledge with regional and local stakeholders. The reduction of vulnerability of water-constrained regional economies to extreme hydrological events can be achieved only through improved understanding of the stochastic regional socioeconomic system dynamics under conditions of exogenous natural impacts. The frequency and severity of future disrupting features may be very different from today’s reality when adverse climate change is taken into account. In the current paper, we study the changes of regional economic dynamics with a root-level model from the hierarchy of integrated hydroeconomic models (a stochastic Structural Dynamics Economic Model SDEM). The water-constrained regional economy is affected by extreme hydrological events, the latter introduced in the model as exogenous random shocks. Sensitivity studies clearly demonstrate the strong dependence of vulnerability of regional economy on parameterization of stochastic climate damage function in SDEM.