Abstract for:Developing the WORLD6 integrated global model; causally linking natural resource use, population, energy, commodities, health, governance and the economy
The WORLD6 model is a tool that can be used to explore possible strategies and help develop adequate policies and strategies for the future. The integrated dynamic model system links the long term availability of natural resources, industry, materials, market mechanisms, economy, food, population, natural environment, governance and sustainability on a global level. WORLD6 model outputs are analysed to assess the long-term sustainability of our society and ultimately it is shown that the model tool can help shape policies for the future. Examples of how the WORLD6 model system is used and what outputs may look at are presented. Diagrams showing supply per person and stock-in-use per person suggest a few very important points with respect to long term sustainability of the global resource supply. The WORLD6 model has been subject to a number of tests against observations and some of the results of these tests is presented. The model can be shown to have the ability to reconstruct past history (1850-2015) fairly well. The relationship between extraction, supply and recycling and the time of population maximum plays an important role for how the supply situation will develop and to evaluate risk for scarcity.