Abstract for: How Economic Policies Profile Industrial Cycles and Long-term Trends (an Application to the USA)
Under the endemic circular stagnation of the state-monopoly capitalism, the US financial capital and the State have been designing a revival policy which has not been presented in essential detail publicly. This paper responds to this gap. An original economic-mathematical model of capitalist reproduction, maintained by the law of surplus value, is upgraded. This allows comparing impacts of economic policies on industrial cycles and on long-term trends in the US economy. Inertia scenario I marked by short termism and mobilizing scenario II focused on long term value creation anticipate regular repetition of over-production and paroxysms. In 2017, the crisis will probably start, opening the next industrial cycle ending in 2024 in scenario I or in 2025 in scenario II. Internationalized capitalism is moving to explosion of its contradictions and to sharpening of geopolitical tensions. This social mode of production is entering a new period of over-production when sound economic policy becomes even more critical. Based on the US macroeconomic data for 1979–2016, computer simulation runs for a later period (through 2031) exhibit how policy optimization far beyond 2016 could alleviate severity of the next crises and improve long-run performance of the US economy compared to the inertia evolution.