Abstract for: Proxy War in the Gray Zone

We present a model on the dynamics of decision-making behind engaging in gray zone conflict (aggressive but sub-conventional conflict activities) and protecting vulnerable areas from harm caused by gray zone activities. We focus on these actions as a mechanism for power struggles between the revisionist and status quo powers, as in proxy war. This model fits a variety of real-world scenarios, and can help in identifying mechanisms for reducing gray zone activities, and potentially for reducing the likelihood of conventional conflict.