Abstract for: Car Technology Market Evolution and Emissions Impacts - An Example of Energy Policy Scenarios under Uncertainty
After the Great Recession and the stark decline in crude oil prices, the transport system, in particular, the car market, is possibly facing a bifurcation point. The extent to which the car market might, in terms of propulsion technology, become more heterogeneous and environmentally-friendly remains highly uncertain. To explore this, a model grounded on dynamic econometrics and system dynamics is developed. The model encompasses nine car technologies powered by seven types of fuel: gasoline, diesel, flex-fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell. Model-based policy analysis is performed and the impacts of several types of car-mix until 2030 are derived. The model is applied to China, France, Germany, India, Japan and the US. The resulting main environmental impact, greenhouse gas emissions, is presented using two reporting boundaries. The key conclusion is that policies that target at electric vehicle market deployment and disregard clean electricity generation are possibly a source of policy failure. Our policy recommendation for the analysed countries, in the context of car technology, centres on the need to conceive a coherent energy, transport and environmental policy package, while acknowledging uncertainty.