These materials are networking tools for members of the Society, those who attended the conference and the System Dynamics community more broadly.
The Conference provides a venue for presenting work and receiving comments that can strengthen the work and help to prepare it for wider distribution.
These web proceedings provide a complete record of presentations at the Conference. They are not intended to be a substitute for publishing in peer-reviewed journals, and some papers may be truncated or include only an abstract.
Readers are encouraged to contact authors or search scientific and business publications to determine if more authoratative and up-to-date versions of works included here exist.
Business
Plenary: Wednesday Afternoon PLENARY SESSION: Feedback Structure and Performance Dynamics in Strategy, chaired by Peter Milling, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
Asset Stock Coordination and Long-Term Dynamics in Love and Commerce, by John Morecroft Abstract Paper
Capability Erosion Dynamics, by Hazhir Rahmandad, Nelson Repenning Abstract
Boom and Bust Dynamics of Management Tool Implementation, by Stefan Groesser, Markus Schwenke Abstract Paper Link from authors
Plenary: Wednesday Morning PLENARY SESSION: Model Validation in Business, chaired by George Richardson, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
Operator confidence in models: comparing two business examples, by Paul Newton, Rod MacDonald, Suzanne Riney, Frank Rasor, Mary Roux-Zink, Neil Roberts, Richard Bierlein, Eric Garday Abstract Paper Supporting
Applications of Calibration Techniques to Dynamic Models, by Mark Paich, Pia Ramchandani, Rachel Rho Abstract
Helping executives with strategic decisions – building confidence, by Tom Mullen Abstract
Parallel: Improving the Business of Renewable Energy, chaired by Travis Franck, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami
Impact of engineering process on construction cost of HVDC offshore wind energy converter station: a system dynamics approach, by Aklilu Tilahun Tadesse Abstract Paper
Dynamic Feed in Tariff Price Adjustments for the Rooftop PV Market in Germany, by Amin Al Yaquob, Kaoru Yamaguchi Abstract Paper Supporting
Disruptive Challenges in Renewable Electricity: threats and opportunities for utilities, by Monica Castaneda, Isaac Dyner Abstract
Parallel: Detailed Business Applications: Creating Value, chaired by Ross Collins, Volunteer(s): Katrina Hull
A System Dynamics Exploration of Agency Theory Interpretations of ERP Acquisition Methods in DOD, by Allen Moulton, Farrah Tazyeen, David Becker, Stuart Madnick Abstract Paper
Modeling the Impact of Alternative-Fuel Vehicles Adoption on Economic Growth through 2040, by Christopher Hughes, Mark Paich, Anand Rao, Aaron Tweadey Abstract Supporting
Parallel: Improving Business Practice, chaired by Usman Ghani, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami
Making the Numbers? "Short termism" and the Puzzle of only occasional disaster, by Hazhir Rahmandad, Nelson Repenning, Rebecca Henderson Abstract Supporting
A System Dynamics Approach to Modelling Business Activities of Ukrainian General Insurers, by Anton Lytvyn, Pervin Dadashova Abstract Paper
Managing the Driver Recruiting Pipeline in a Transportation Firm, by Zahir Balaporia Abstract Paper
Parallel: Better Policy Creates Faster Business Process Improvement, chaired by Yutaka Takahashi, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami
Constructing Local Stories for Global Insight: Detecting Dominant Structure in Forrester’s Market Growth Model, by Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh Abstract Paper
Why some small and medium enterprises grow and others do not?, by Amr Farouk, Bob Walrave, Georges Romme Abstract Paper
The Complexity in Requirements Process Improvement, by Aminah Zawedde, Ddembe Williams Abstract
Parallel: Exploring People Systems as a Business Resource, chaired by Warren Farr, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami
Understanding how Human Resource Knowledge Accumulation and Depletion Processes impact on a Service Firm Performance, by Enzo Bivona Abstract
A system dynamics model of the individual decisions of a salaried employee in saving for retirement, by Johann de Villiers, Josephine Musango, Alan Brent Abstract Paper
Organizational Change, Resistance to Change and Participatory Strategies: A Feedback Perspective, by Sylvia Schweiger, Hendrik Stouten, Inge Bleijenbergh Abstract Paper
Poster: Business and Strategy: Business Explorations
The Bass Diffusion Model does not explain diffusion, by Ashish Kumar, Ravi Shankar, Kirankumar Momaya Abstract Paper
Influence of Projects’ Size on a Professional Service Firm Performance, by Tomas Hubik Abstract Paper Supporting
System Dynamics in New Product Forecasting: Collaborative Use of Patient Based Forecast Model for an Oncology Drug, by Eckhard Scheufler, Peter Lacey Abstract Paper
A System Dynamics model to explore Strategy Renewal Process in Family Firms., by Carmine Garzia, Gianluca Colombo Abstract Paper
Poster: Business and Strategy: Business Applications, chaired by John Voyer, Shayne Gary, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi, Mohammad Jalali
The impact of Australia's carbon tax on an unshielded emissions intensive trade exposed manufacturing industry, by Sue McAvoy Abstract Paper
An Inquiry into the Understanding of Risk Characterization of Mega-projects for Project Financing, by Atanu Mukherjee, Purnendu Chatterjee, Arnab Adak Abstract Paper
“Two Subsystems of Eleven Elements”: System Dynamics and Other Approaches in Modeling Association Football, by Chester Labedz, Robert Schumaker, A. Tomasz Jarmoszko, David Freeman Abstract Paper
Business System Model of Battery Swapping Management for Transportation Fleet and Energy Storage System, by Vee Kuan Chew, Nobuaki Minato, Masaru Nakano Abstract Paper Supporting
Economics
Plenary: Monday Evening Plenary Session, sponsored by System Dynamics Program, Social Science and Policy Studies Department, WPI, chaired by Michael Radzicki, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
“State of the Global Economy” Fireside Chat, by David Colander, John Harvey, Barry Armstrong Abstract
Plenary: Wednesday 19:00 PM Plenary Session, chaired by Timothy Havel
Pre-release Screening of the Movie “Boom Bust Boom”, by Timothy Havel Abstract
Parallel: Macroeconomics, chaired by Souleymane Bah, Volunteer(s): Philipp Schwarz
The Danger of Float: The Case of Ukraine, by Oleksandr Faryna, David Wheat Abstract Supporting
Exchange Rates and Reshoring, by Takayuki Yamashita Abstract Paper Supporting
ASD Macroeconomic Model of Japan on the Flow of Funds and National Accounts - Report on its Early Stage Development, by Kaoru Yamaguchi, Yokei Yamaguchi Abstract Paper
Parallel: Issues in Economics, chaired by Jacob Jacobson, Volunteer(s): Philipp Schwarz
A System Dynamics Approach to Simulating the South African Forestry & Logging Sector’s Electricity Demand, by Talitha Koegelenberg, Nalini Sooknanan Pillay Abstract Paper
Conceptualizing Capital Flight: A Systems Perspective, by Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, Basit Rizwan, Umar Burki Abstract Paper
The Feedback Dynamics between Poverty and Education Opportunity: Vicious Circle of Poverty, by Gizem Bacaksizlar, Yaman Barlas Abstract Paper Supporting
Poster: Economics, Security, and Operations, chaired by Oleg Pavlov, Birgit Kopainsky, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi, Kay Kim
The Paradox of Redistribution: A System Dynamics Translation, by David Collste Abstract Paper Supporting
Modeling Dynamics of Expectations on Global Oil Price, by Mohammadhussein Rafieisakhaei, Babak Barazandeh, Mahdi Boloursaz Mashhadi, Seyed Mohammad Asadzadeh Abstract Paper
Living Within the Planetary Capacity: A Dynamic Feedback Approach, by Ali Saysel Abstract Paper
Simulating the Neodymium Supply Chain Using Explicit Dynamic Supply and Demand, by Robert Jeffers, Kara Cafferty, Braeton Smith, Maxwell Brown Abstract
An Enhancement for the Textbook’s Models of Natural Resources and Economic Growth, by Alexander Ryzhenkov Abstract Paper Supporting
Quantifying Supply Risk at a Cellulosic Biorefinery, by Jason Hansen, Jacob Jacobson, Mohammad Roni Abstract Paper
The Internet as source of herding behavior: Exploring consequences in financial markets, by M. Dolores Soto-Torres, Ramon Fernandez-Lechon, Pedro Fernandez Soto Abstract Paper Supporting
Environment
Plenary: Monday Morning PLENARY SESSION: Environmental Sustainability, chaired by Karim Chichakly, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
A system dynamics framework to promote sustainability in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia social-ecological system, by Krystyna Stave, Birgit Kopainsky Abstract
Resilience, Social-Ecological Rules, and Environmental Variability in an Artisanal Fishery, by Marshall Duer-Balkind, Kasey Jacobs, Burak Guneralp, Xavier Basurto Abstract Supporting
Supply Chains as Catalysts for Sustained Systemic Change: Groundnuts and Aflatoxins in Malawi, by Steve Peterson Abstract
Parallel: From Local to Global Sustainability, chaired by Ali Saysel, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi
Modeling livelihood strategies of local communities in central India, by Alark Saxena, Burak Guneralp, Robert Bailis, Chadwick Dearing Oliver, Gary Yohe Abstract Supporting
Exploring Degrowth Pathways Using System Dynamics, by Therese Bennich, Tom Bongers, David Collste Abstract Paper
Farm to Fork: Fritter overlooked and its impacts, by Muhammad Azeem Qureshi, John Ansah Abstract Paper
Parallel: Integrated Management Approaches, chaired by Robert Jeffers, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin
Disaster Debris Management and Recovery for Housing Stock in San Francisco, CA, by Zahraa Saiyed Abstract Paper Supporting
Energy performance and Dynamic Modelling of Existing Building Infrastructure and Services in South African Universities, by Stephen Eromobor, Dillip Das Abstract Paper
A Methodological Framework for the Valuation of Non-Marketable Species Based on their Ecological Function in the Agroecosystem, by Silvie Daniels, Nele Witters, Jaco Vangronsveld, Steven Van Passel Abstract Paper Supporting
Parallel: Sustainable Energy and Climate Change Policies, chaired by Onur Ozgun, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi
A Model of Energy Policy Impacts on Pollutant Emissions, Costs, and Social Benefits Developed for China’s Central Government, by Jeffrey Rissman Abstract Paper Supporting
Energy Use and Emissions Impacts from Car Technologies Market Scenarios: A Multi-Country System Dynamics Model, by Jonathan Gomez, Patrick Jochem, Wolf Fichtner Abstract Paper
An Adaptive Dynamic Model of Climate Change and Emissions Trading, by Todd BenDor, Jurgen Scheffran, Nikhil Kaza Abstract
Parallel: Environment and Society, chaired by Andrew Ford, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi
Dynamics of Fisheries, by Mirmojtaba Gharibi Abstract Paper Supporting
Controlling the Black Bear Population in Maine, by John Voyer, Anya Cornell, Carl Lolar, Joseph Albert Abstract Paper Supporting
Toward Effective Water Diplomacy by Using System Dynamics: Case Study, by Mahdi Zarghami, Mohammad Amir Rahmani Abstract Paper
Poster: Environment and Public Policy: Sustainable Production and Consumption Systems, chaired by Johannes Hartwig, Karim Chichakly, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin, Kay Kim
Low Carbon Development Strategy for the West African Electricity System: System Dynamic Approach, by Abiodun Momodu, Ahmad Addo, J-F. K. Akinbami, Yacob Mulugetta Abstract Paper
Product Policy Impact in the Lifecycle of Light Bulbs Through System Dynamics, by Luz-Angelica Rodriguez Abstract Paper Supporting
Expanded Producer Responsability Model: An Analysis on the Brazilian Case Based on System Dynamics Approach, by Bruno Massote, Jacques Demajorovic, Edmilson Moraes Abstract Paper
Strategy Analysis to Control Emissions from Ships at Berth: A System Dynamics Approach, by Srikar Prithvi Chinam, Lewlyn Rodrigues Abstract Paper Supporting
What are the Water Resources Scenarios in future? SD-based Water Resource Carrying Capacity Modeling in China, by Jianxun Chu Abstract
A study of the use of common resources by means of agent-based simulation, tragedy of commons and social identity models, by Rogerio Morano, Edmilson Moraes Abstract
A System Dynamics Model of Illegal Farmland Use, Pollution, and Land Value in Central Taiwan, by Tsuey-Ping Lee Abstract
Conflict Dynamics and Peacemaking: Understanding the Security, Aid and Development Nexus in Africa, by Nancy Hayden Abstract Paper Supporting
Workshop:
Hands-On Modeling United States Energy Policy: Achieving Emissions Targets and Exploring Scenarios, by Jeffrey Rissman Abstract Paper Supporting
Health
Plenary: Tuesday Afternoon PLENARY SESSION: Health Care, chaired by Yaman Barlas, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
Did System Dynamics Find a Cure for HIV? …And is that just the start?, by Kenneth Cooper Abstract
Improving Clinic Operations with System Dynamics, by Marc Gautier, Dennis McGrath, Deborah Scribner Abstract
Parallel: Dealing with Chronic and Infectious Diseases, chaired by Özge Karanfil, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
Simulation Model of Diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy-induced Dialysis in Japan through 2022: Evaluation of Possible Strategies, by Takehiro Sugiyama, Sayuri Goryoda, Kaori Inoue, Noriko Sugiyama-Ihana, Nobuo Nishi Abstract Paper Supporting
A System Dynamics Model of the Kidney Transplants in the U.S., by Ignacio Paricio, Jorge Figal Abstract Paper Supporting
Characterization of the impacts of heterogeneity in high-risk populations for infectious disease transmission: Modeling polio a, by Kimberly Thompson, Radboud Duintjer Tebbens, Kasper Kisjes Abstract Paper
Parallel: Ebola and Other Infectious Diseases, chaired by Radboud Duintjer Tebbens, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
The Ebola Outbreak in West Africa: Important Lessons about Modeling and Simulating Uncertain Dynamic Issues, by Erik Pruyt Abstract Paper
A Quantitative Assessment of Dynamic Intervention-Capacity Effectiveness in the 2014 Ebola Epidemic, by Willem Auping, Erik Pruyt, Jan Kwakkel, Michel Rademaker Abstract Paper
Modeling the Chikungunya Virus: A System Dynamics Approach, by James Enos, Russel Schott, Elizabeth Schott Abstract Paper
Parallel: Screening and Survival Analysis, chaired by Patricia Craig, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer, by Anton Palma, David Lounsbury, Nicolas Schlecht, Ilir Agalliu Abstract Paper
Risk Perception, Preferences and Behaviors in Cancer Screening: A System Without Negative Feedback, by Özge Karanfil, John Sterman Abstract
On the characterization of censored survival curves in system dynamic models, by Radboud Duintjer Tebbens, Kimberly Thompson Abstract Paper
Parallel: Health Systems and Policies, chaired by Enzo Bivona, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
Financial Sustainability of Health Systems Dominated by Private Health Insurance, by Nisa Onsel, Yaman Barlas Abstract
Modeling Ophthalmologists requirements for an aging population, by John Ansah, David Matchar, Steffen Bayer Abstract
Kidney transplantations in the United States: A System Dynamics approach to reduce the waiting list and illegal trafficking, by Philipp Schwarz, Sebastiaan Fakkert, Erik Pruyt Abstract Paper Supporting
Parallel: Population Health Methodology, chaired by C. Sherry Immediato, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
Birth Cohorts Approach to Modeling Aging Populations, by Jeremy Sato, Nishesh Chalise, Peter Hovmand, Nancy Zoellner, Kenneth Carson, Andrew Brown Abstract Paper Supporting
Population Health: Microfoundations for macrosimulation, by Robert Eberlein, James Thompson, John Ansah, Nicholas Perkins, David Matchar Abstract
Estimating System Dynamics Models Using Indirect Inference, by Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, Hazhir Rahmandad, Mohammad Jalali, Andrea Wittenborn Abstract Paper Supporting
Poster: Health and Human Behavior: Health Systems and Organizations
A Predictive Model of Prediabetics’ Awareness of Diabetes Education and its Effects in the Republic of Korea, by YoungMin Noh, Chang Kim, EunKyoung Yun Abstract Paper Supporting
Is Travel Restriction the Answer to Liberia’s Ebola Pandemic?, by Eng Seng Chia, Christian Hadi Wijaya, Felix Fernando, Athletea Widjaja, Peter Djasni Abstract Paper Supporting
Poster: Health and Human Behavior: Health Systems and Organizations
Improving Services to Hospital Outpatient Clinics, by Keming Wang Abstract Paper Supporting
Safety and Health in Company Management. Towards a System Dynamics tools for training and policy making, by Antonio Leva, Rita Vallerotonda, Daniele De Santis, Mauro Pellicci, Stefano Armenia, Claudia Volpetti Abstract Paper
Horizon 2035: The role of SD in developing a vision for the health, social care and public health workforce in England, by Siôn Cave, Tom Lyscom, Graham Willis, Matt Edwards, John Fellows Abstract Paper
Local Area Physician Workforce Planning Model Pilot, by Michael Dill, Gary Hirsch, Emily Yunker Abstract Paper
The Puerto Rico Emergency Preparedness Model, by Gary Hirsch, Heriberto Centeno Abstract Paper
Modelling a collective health behaviour in a social network: The case of dental routine visiting, by Maryam Sadeghipour, Peyman Shariatpanahi, Afshin Jafari, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Mohammad Hosien Khoshnevisan, Arezoo Ebne Ahmadi Abstract Paper
System Thinking Analysis of Adolescent Obesity, by Hanna Lee, EunKyoung Yun Abstract Supporting
The Nonlinear Simulation of adolescent Obesity Using System Dynamics, by EunKyoung Yun, Hanna Lee, EunSuk Park, Jaekook Yu Abstract Supporting
Understanding the dynamics of Ebola transmission using a simple dynamic model, by Sara Peterson Abstract Supporting
Human Behavior
Parallel: Decisions and Emotions: Their Impact on the System, chaired by Pascal Gambardella, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami
Unwanted Emotions in Adolescence: Examining the Effectiveness of Emotion Regulation from a Feedback Perspective, by Saras Chung, Peter Hovmand Abstract
Fear as Contagion: the Ebola Crisis and Public Fear Networks A System Dynamics Approach, by Nasser Sharareh, Nasim Sabounchi Abstract Paper
Results of a Beer Game Experiment: Should a Manager Always Behave According to the Book?, by Mert Edali, Hakan Yasarcan Abstract Paper
Poster: Health and Human Behavior: Individual and Organizational, chaired by David Lounsbury, Nicole Zimmermann, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin, Mohammad Jalali
Why Do We Slip in the Bathtub? - Explanation of Stock-Flow Failure Based on Systems with Life, by Tiru Arthanari Abstract Paper
Culture Dynamics, by Douglas Franco, Usman Ghani Abstract
Creatures of habit: Do differences in feedback concepts matter for shaping recycling behavior?, by Bent Erik Bakken, Cecilie Mauritzen, Ingunn Sandaker, John Nilssen Abstract Supporting
An Investigation into the Dynamics of Transiting into Alternate States of Consciousness, by Abhijit Mandal, David Lounsbury, Ramesh Pattni Abstract Supporting
Transitional Dynamics of the Mind (from the Yoga-sutra), by Abhijit Mandal, Ramesh Pattni, David Lounsbury Abstract Supporting
Development Toward School Readiness: A Holistic Model, by Alan Gaynor Abstract Paper Supporting
Resilient Capacity on the Front Lines: Coping with Challenges to Patient Flow, by J. Bradley Morrison, Robert Wears Abstract
Workshop:
Modeling Psychological and Sociological Dynamics, by Pascal Gambardella, David Lounsbury Abstract Paper Supporting
Information and Knowledge
Poster: Economics, Security, and Operations: Information and Knowledge
System Dynamics for a mathematical modeling approach in Software Engineering and Information Systems, by Ricardo Vicente Jaime Vivas Abstract Paper
The Seen and Unseen: Emergent Control and Project Progress in IS Integration Efforts, by Luis Luna-Reyes, David Andersen, Laura Black, Theresa Pardo Abstract
Information Technology: System Dynamics Modeling of an IT Major Incident Resolution Process, by John Voyer, Andrea Cahill, Kathryn Laustsen, Benjamin Philbrick Abstract Paper Supporting
Building Information Technology Capabilities: a Case Study of the Development of an Integrated Management System, by Josué Medeiros, Manoel Neto, Edmilson Moraes, Miguel E Moreno Anez Abstract Paper Supporting
Workshop:
Creating Interactive Simulations on the Web with Forio Epicenter, by Michael Bean Abstract
Learning and Teaching
Parallel: Teaching with System Dynamics, chaired by Nalini Sooknanan Pillay, Volunteer(s): Michael Bastiani
Learning as conceptual change during community based group interventions. A case study with smallholder farmers in Zambia, by Gerid Hager, Birgit Kopainsky, Progress Nyanga Abstract Paper
Behind Closed Gates: Potential Dynamics When One Individual or Group Is Given Complete Authority Over Another, by Anne LaVigne, Lees Stuntz Abstract Paper Supporting
Developing Understanding of Dynamic Systems Within Early Childhood Settings, by Anne LaVigne, Tracy Benson, Sheri Marlin Abstract Paper
Parallel: Innovative Teaching Initiatives, chaired by John Richardson, Volunteer(s): Philipp Schwarz
Learning Economics with Dynamic Modeling. A Norwegian-Ukrainian Collaboration Project., by Iaroslava Stelmashenko, Iryna Lukianenko, David Wheat Abstract Paper
Transforming Race 2015: How System Dynamics is Helping to Shape the Response to Ferguson, MO, by Megan Odenthal, Nancy Zoellner, Saras Chung, Jill Kuhlberg, Peter Hovmand Abstract
From Teaching System Dynamics Towards Total Immersion in Advanced Model-Based Policy Analysis, by Erik Pruyt, Bert Enserink, Wil Thissen Abstract Paper
Parallel: Basic Processes in Learning System Dynamics, chaired by Tiru Arthanari, Volunteer(s): Philipp Schwarz
Rethinking intuition of accumulation principles, by Chris Browne, Paul Compston Abstract Paper Supporting
The more you see the less you “get”: On the importance of a higher-level perspective for understanding dynamic systems, by Helen Fischer, Florian Kapmeier, Mihaela Tabacaru, Birgit Kopainsky Abstract Paper
Bathtub Dynamics revisited: Exploring the engineering domain, by Florian Kapmeier, Meike Tilebein, Roland Maximilian Happach Abstract Paper
Poster: Methodology and Learning: Approaches Utilizing System Dynamics Principles
Pre-College Student Understanding of Accumulations: An Experiment at a WPI Summer Workshop for Students, by Diana Fisher, Christopher DiCarlo, Alan Ticotsky, Rob Quaden Abstract Paper
Developing Question Sets to Assess Systems Thinking Skills, by Kiumars Dorani, Armina Mortazavi, Mohammad Amin Dehdarian, Hesam Mahmoudi, Masoomeh Khandan, Ali Mashayekhi Abstract Paper
A Learning Science-based Protocol for Evaluation of a Sustainability-based Learning Environment, by Mahdi M. NajafAbadi, Babak Bahaddin, Reza Behnagh, Michael Deegan, David Andersen, Luis Luna-Reyes, Rod MacDonald, Eliot Rich Abstract Paper
Population Dynamics in History: Connecting Past, Present, and Future, by P. Jeffrey Potash, Jennifer Andersen, Lees Stuntz Abstract Paper Supporting Link from authors
The Capability Traps in Explaining the Capability Trap: Lessons from the Field on Conveying Generalizable System Insights, by Peter Hovmand, Laura Guzman-Abello, Camilo Olaya, Wolfgang Munar, Mary Jo Stahlschmidt Abstract
Workshop:
Teaching Students to Create Original Models in a Ten-Week Course, by Diana Fisher Abstract
Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling for Math and Science Instruction: Online Professional Development Opportunity, by Diana Fisher Abstract
Getting Started with Powersim Studio, by Leonard Malczynski Abstract Supporting Link from authors
Methodology
Parallel: Model Variety and Confidence, chaired by Birgit Kopainsky, Volunteer(s): Rob van Waas
Beyond Proximity: Consequentialist Ethics and System Dynamics, by Erika Palmer Abstract Paper
Prediction--the Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test, by Wayne Wakeland Abstract Paper Supporting
A Generic System Dynamics Model of Firm Internal Processes, by Hamed Khaledi Abstract Paper Supporting
Parallel: SD Modelling Technique and Attitudes, chaired by David Lounsbury, Volunteer(s): Rob van Waas
From Modelling Uncertain Surprises to Simulating Black Swans, by Erik Pruyt Abstract Paper
Newton’s Laws of System Dynamics, by John Hayward Abstract Paper
Better Robustly Right than Accurately Wrong, by Erik Pruyt, Willem Auping, Jan Kwakkel, Wil Thissen Abstract Paper
Parallel: Model Description and Public Application, chaired by Leonard Malczynski, Volunteer(s): Rob van Waas
Global and Local Control of a Resource Utilization Model, by Ingmar Vierhaus, Armin Fugenschuh Abstract Paper
SDXchange: Stand-alone Translators to Enable XMILE Model Adaptation, Transportation, and Exchange, by Robert Ward, James Houghton, Ivan Perl Abstract
A Tool for Enhanced Causal Discovery and Understanding: System Dynamics Modeling – Causal Miner (SDM-CMiner), by Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Nicholson Collier Abstract
Parallel: Combining Simulation Methodologies, chaired by Mohamed Saleh, Volunteer(s): Rob van Waas
Model learning using genetic programming under full and partial system information conditions, by Hassan Abdelbari, Sondoss Elsawah, Kamran Shafi Abstract Paper Supporting
Advanced data analytics for system dynamics models using PySD, by James Houghton, Michael Siegel Abstract Paper Link from authors
A Hybrid Social Network-System Dynamics Model of Team Learning, by Edward Anderson, Kyle Lewis Abstract Supporting
Parallel: Exploring Model Structure, chaired by Stefan Groesser, Volunteer(s): Rob van Waas
Does Analytical Thinking Improve Understanding of Accumulation?, by Arash Baghaei Lakeh, Navid Ghaffarzadegan Abstract
Generic and reusable structure in systems dynamics modelling: roadmap of literature and future research questions, by Sondoss Elsawah, Alan McLucas, Michael Ryan Abstract Paper
Unpacking the black box of causality: What is it we assume with every link?, by Christian Hugo Hoffmann, Stefan Groesser Abstract Link from authors
Parallel: Learning and Modeling Networks, chaired by Cornelia van Daalen, Volunteer(s): Michael Bastiani
Dynamic Modeling of Learning in Emerging Energy Industries: The Example of Advanced Biofuels in the United States, by Laura Vimmerstedt, Steve Peterson, Brian Bush Abstract Paper Supporting Link from authors
Exploring Traffic and Congestion Policies An Entity-Based Micro-Macro System Dynamics Approach, by Hugo Benaich, Erik Pruyt Abstract Paper
Information Diffusion through Social Networks: the Case of an Online Petition (Dana Meadows Award Winner), by Mohammad Jalali, Armin Ashouri Rad, Oscar Herrera-Restrepo, Hui Zhang Abstract Supporting
Poster: Methodology and Learning: SD Use from Various Viewpoints
Informing Secondary School Decision Making within a competitive market environment, by David Carter, Jonathan Moizer, Shaofeng Liu Abstract Paper Supporting
SYSTEM DYNAMICS A bibliometric analysis of System Dynamics Review, by Rogerio Orefice, Edmilson Moraes Abstract Paper
Block Diagrams of Generic System Dynamics Models, by Sema Mehmet, Hakan Yasarcan Abstract Paper
Poster: Methodology and Learning: Combining Methodologies
A Multi-Method Approach to Advanced Data Analytics: Diabetes Geodynamic Information System, by Mingzhe Tao, Mahdi M. NajafAbadi, William Augustine, Babak Bahaddin, Felippe Cronemberger, Katrina Hull, James Houghton, Smita Sharma, Jack Homer, Eliot Rich Abstract
Structurally Evolving System Dynamics Models Using Genetic Algorithms, by Michael North, Pamela Sydelko, Ignacio Martinez-Moyano Abstract Paper
Time-varying Correlation in System Dynamics: Causal needles in a haystack of correlations, by Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Jessica Trail Abstract
Poster: Methodology and Learning, chaired by William Schoenberg, Yaman Barlas, Volunteer(s): Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi, Kay Kim
Identifying uncertainties in the development of Oil Sands in Nigeria: An exploratory SD Model, by Saroj Koul, Oluwabunmi Falebita, Joshua Akarakiri, J-F. K. Akinbami Abstract Paper
Using Systems Thinking to Shift Mindsets- A Fortune 500 Company's Multi-year Journey, by Michael Goodman, Chris Soderquist, Kathleen Clark Abstract Paper
About the use of delays in electricity market models through a system dynamics approach, by José Morcillo Bastidas, Carlos Franco Cardona, Fabiola Garcia Abstract
How Bandung Smart City Policy Influences Its Citizens Quality of Life: I. Model Development, by Lidia Mulyadi, Rhorom Priyatikanto, Takeshi Arai Abstract Paper Supporting
Workshop:
Getting Started with Stella Professional, by Robert Eberlein, William Schoenberg Abstract
Using modules and arrays with Stella Professional, by Robert Eberlein, William Schoenberg Abstract
System Dynamics Model Documentation and Assessment Tool (SDM-Doc), by Ignacio Martinez-Moyano Abstract Link from authors
Vensim Calibration and Markov Chain Monte Carlo, by Thomas Fiddaman, Larry Yeager Abstract Link from authors
Entity-based System Dynamics with Ventity II, by Thomas Fiddaman, Larry Yeager Abstract Link from authors
Agile SD - fast, reliable, effective, by Kim Warren Abstract Paper Supporting
Getting started with the new (2015) Sysdea online software, by Kim Warren Abstract
Entity-based System Dynamics with Ventity I, by Thomas Fiddaman, Larry Yeager Abstract Link from authors
Developing a Multi-Method Modeling Approach to Advanced Data Analytics in SD, by Luis Luna-Reyes, Eliot Rich Abstract
Introduction to Vensim, by Thomas Fiddaman, Larry Yeager Abstract Link from authors
Operations
Parallel: Operations in "Service" Industries, chaired by James Burns, Volunteer(s): Philipp Schwarz
The Use of Temporary Workers as a Response to Work Pressure in Service Operations, by Luis Lopez Abstract Paper
Impact of Production-Inventory Control on the Dynamics of Epidemics, by Siddhartha Paul, Jayendran Venkateswaran Abstract Paper
Four Echelon Retail Supply Chain Optimization-insights from Experimenting with Powel’s Hill-climbing algorithm in Vensim©, by Balaji Janamanchi, James Burns Abstract Paper
Poster: Economics, Security, and Operations: Operations Management
A System Dynamics Model for Business Process Change Projects, by Zuzana Rosenberg, Tobias Riasanow, Helmut Krcmar Abstract Paper
Understanding the Boom and Bust Cycles of Ostrich Production in South Africa using System Dynamics, by Lize Duminy Abstract Paper Supporting
Measuring Eigenvalues’ Sensitivities via Kernel Canonical Correlation Analysis, by Ahmed Yehia, Mohamed Saleh, Ayman Taha, Hisham El-Shishiny Abstract Paper
Public Policy
Plenary: Monday Afternoon PLENARY SESSION: Challenges in Public Policy, chaired by John Morecroft, Volunteer(s): Mahdi Zarghami, Philipp Schwarz
How to Save a Leaky Ship: Capability Traps and the Failure of Win-Win Investments in Sustainability and Social Responsibility, by John Lyneis, John Sterman Abstract
Understanding Humanitarian Supply Chain Logistics with System Dynamics Modeling, by John Voyer, Matthew Dean, Christopher Pickles Abstract Paper Supporting
Systems Thinking and Simulations in the US Public Policy Community: NASPAA’s Student Simulation Competition, by Laurel McFarland, Emily Reineke, Bobby Milstein, Rebecca Niles, Gary Hirsch, Ernest Cawvey, Jack Homer, Anand Desai, David Andersen, Rod MacDonald Abstract Paper
Parallel: Social Safety Nets, chaired by Peter Lacey, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
Falling off the cliff? Increasing economic security for low income adults as the safety net shrinks, by Julie Maurer, Joshua Hawley Abstract Paper Supporting
Public Policy Implementation Modeling: The Classic Case of EDA in Oakland, by David Wheat, Eugene Bardach Abstract
Repeatable Solutions: the Case of Elderly-Care Provision, by Kim Warren Abstract Paper
Parallel: Managing Infrastructure, chaired by Hyunjung Kim, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
Modes of Failure of South African Local Government in the Water Services Sector, by Jai Clifford-Holmes, Jill Slinger, Carolyn Palmer, Phumlani Mbulawa Abstract Paper Supporting
Understanding the US Highway System: A System Dynamics Perspective, by Jose Guevara, Navid Ghaffarzadegan, Michael Garvin Abstract Supporting
Study on Impact Evaluation of Introducing Policies to Realize Urban Consolidation by Using MARS: Case Study of Niigata, Japan, by Hiroki Kikuchi, Sathita Malaitham, Atsushi Fukuda, Guenter Emberger, Paul Pfaffenbichler, Tetsuhiro Ishizaka Abstract Paper
Parallel: Environmental and Social Sustainability, chaired by Man-Hyung Lee, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
U.S. Campaign Finance and Institutional Corruption in Public Policy, by Bruce Skarin, Jamie Melhuish Abstract Paper Supporting
Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles in the Netherlands, by Michael Bastiani, Erik Pruyt Abstract Paper Supporting
Agricultural Theory in System Dynamics - A Case Study from Zambia, by Andreas Gerber Abstract Paper Supporting
Parallel: Humanitarian Agendas, chaired by Robert Eberlein, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
System Dynamics Modeling of impacts of Central African Republic refugees in Eastern Cameroon, by Michel Douglas Piamou Djamengo, Pascaux Smala Fanokoa Abstract Paper Supporting
Approaching Resilience for Displaced People in the Congo, by Charles Jones Abstract Paper Supporting
Addressing Equity Gaps in Healthy Food Access: A Meso-Level Model of Food Innovation, Distribution and Acceptance, by Derek Chan, Jeroen Struben, Laurette Dube Abstract
Poster: Resource Management: Public Resources
A Systems Thinking approach to the analysis of economic impacts related to transportation shutdowns: the ATTACS project, by Stefano Armenia, Georgios Tsaples, Camillo Carlini, Vanessa Armendariz, Claudia Volpetti, Riccardo Onori Abstract Paper
Nuevo Leon’s Public Debt: Analysis using Dynamic systems modeling, by Noé Martinez Abstract Paper Supporting Link from authors
Effect of financial resource allocation on dynamics of national innovation system: The case of Iran, by Alireza Akhavan, Gholamreza Eslamifar Abstract Paper Supporting
Poster: Environment and Public Policy: Politics and Public Decision Making
A System Dynamic Hypothesis for the Disparate Alternative Fuel Vehicle Adoption Paths in Australia and the United States, by Yimeng Jiang, David Keith, Matthew Doolan Abstract Paper
Management of Public Procurement of Information System, by Yutaka Takahashi Abstract Paper Supporting
Proposing a conceptual framework for Iran and U.S. coercive relations, by Amir MohammadShirazi Abstract Paper Supporting
Sensitivity Analysis of Government Policies Implementation on Mobility of Indonesian Students Abroad, by Tutik Inayati, Takeshi Arai Abstract Paper
Green Building Policy and Real Estate Development: A Causal Mapping Study Derived from Qualitative Data, by Erin Hoffer Abstract Paper
Poster: Environment and Public Policy: Policies for Sustainable System
Dynamics of Urban Warming: How Human-Environment Interaction Creates Urban Heat Islands?, by Onur Ozgun, Matthias Ruth, Casper Harteveld, Binita KC Abstract Paper
Study of reduction measures for abandoned dog population based on a dynamic model of household dogs in Japan, by Hidetsugu Morimoto Abstract Supporting
Population Projection for India – A System Dynamics Approach, by Shreenivas Kunte, Om Damani Abstract Paper Supporting
Workshop:
Tips and Techniques for Harnessing the Power of Stock and Flow Thinking: Lessons learned from our work with policymakers, by Rachel Ferencik, Chris Soderquist Abstract
Resources
Parallel: Green Growth & Efficient Resource Use, chaired by Josephine Musango, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
Exploring Water-Energy Nexus towards Integrated Water and Energy Management, by Yilin Zhuang, Qiong Zhang Abstract
Improving Process Sustainability and Profitability for a large US Gray Iron foundry, by Prashant Nagapurkar, Joseph Smith, Shyam Paudel Abstract Paper Supporting
Inclusive Green Growth and Sustainable Finance Through Ecotax - a System Dynamics Model, by Joachim Block, Bo Hu, Armin Leopold Abstract Paper
Parallel: Dynamics of Energy Transitions, chaired by George Matthew, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
Simulating the Capacity Expansion of Renewable Energies in the Swiss Electricity Market, by Merla Kubli, Erling Moxnes Abstract Paper Supporting
Modelling Wind Turbine Diffusion: A Comparative Study of California and Denmark 1980 - 1995, by Yazgülü Bildik, Cornelia van Daalen, Gönenç Yucel, Roland Ortt, Wil Thissen Abstract Paper
Network effects in decentralisation dynamics of regional energy systems, by Merla Kubli, Silvia Ulli-Beer Abstract Paper
Parallel: Coupled Human & Natural Systems, chaired by Stefano Armenia, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
Developing a System Dynamics model to investigate sustainability of traditional acequia communities of New Mexico, by Benjamin Turner, Vincent Tidwell Abstract Paper Supporting
Rethinking agriculture of a shrinking world: operationalization of resilience with a System Dynamics perspective, by Hugo Herrera, Birgit Kopainsky Abstract Paper
System Dynamics and Sustainable Intensification of Food Systems: Complementarities and Challenges, by Birgit Kopainsky, Charles Nicholson Abstract Paper
Parallel: Lasting Impacts for Feeding the World, chaired by Alberto Atzori, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
A simulation model for wheat-related policies and food insecurity in Egypt, by Miral Khodeir, Hisham Abdel-Salam Abstract Paper
Representation and Dynamic Implications of Mental Models of Food Systems, by Jacynta Spicer Abstract Paper
Multiscale Integrated Modeling of Ecosystems Services (MIMES): Simulating interactions of coupled human and natural systems, by Roel Boumans, Roman Joe, Irit Altman, Les Kaufman, Marjan van den Belt Abstract Paper Link from authors
Parallel: Energy & Renewables Diffusion, chaired by Isaac Dyner, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
A System Dynamics model for the Cost Recovery of Residential Smart Meter Roll-Out in the Lemanic Area, by Mohammad Amin Dehdarian, Peter Racz Abstract Paper
Diffusion of solar generation on rooftops: A system dynamics-based approach in Colombia, by Maritza Jimenez, Carlos Franco Cardona, Isaac Dyner Abstract
Clean and secure power supply: SD-based appraisal of risks, opportunities and challenges, by Sebastián Zapata Ramirez, Isaac Dyner Abstract
Parallel: Resource Market Dynamics, chaired by Takayuki Yamashita, Volunteer(s): James Hacunda
Debunking the myth that a legal trade will solve the rhino horn crisis: A system dynamics model for market demand, by Douglas Crookes, James Blignaut Abstract Paper Supporting
Building Resilience to Climate-Change-Related Disruptions in the Global LNG Supply Chain, by Bradd Libby, Alexander Christiansen Abstract Paper Supporting
The classical Cobweb Theorem and real commodity market behavior: Modeling delayed adjustment of supply, by Simon Gloeser, Johannes Hartwig Abstract Paper
Poster: Resource Management: Resources, Water, and Agriculture
Model evaluation and sensitivity analyses of an acequia community irrigation system dynamics model, by Benjamin Turner, Vincent Tidwell Abstract Paper Supporting
System Dynamics Updates of FAO Methodological Guide to Understand the Food Supply and Distribution Systems (FSDS), by Vanessa Armendariz, Stefano Armenia, Alberto Atzori Abstract Paper
Effects of a Biofuels Economy on Maize Production in Ethiopia, by Patrick Campbell Abstract Paper Supporting
The Maize Value Chain in Zambia: Dynamics and Resilience Towards Production Shocks, by Conrad Steinhilber Abstract Paper Supporting
Forest Area and Land Use Change in Pakistan: A System Dynamics Approach, by Naila Nazir, Laura Schmitt Olabisi Abstract Paper Supporting
A system dynamics approach to understand the implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province, by Josephine Musango, Alan Brent, Smit van Niekerk, Willem Jonker, Aliza Pienaar, Theodore York, Juan Oosthuizen, Lize Duminy, Imke De Kock Abstract
Poster: Resource Management: Resources and Energy, chaired by Leonard Malczynski, Oleg Pavlov, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin, Mohammad Jalali
Exploring the Death Spiral: A system dynamics model of the electricity network in Western Australia, by William Grace Abstract Paper Supporting
Insights into the Thermal Generation Futures of Isolated Island Electricity Systems Using System Dynamics, by George Matthew, William Nuttall, Ben Mestel, Laurence Dooley Abstract Paper Supporting
Rural Electrification Through Minigrids in Developing Countries: Initial Generation Capacity Effect on Cost-Recovery, by Elias Hartvigsson, Erik Ahlgren, Jimmy Ehnberg, Sverker Molander Abstract Paper Supporting
Energy Modeling of Danish Housing Stock Using System Dynamics, by Reza Fazeli, Brynhildur Davidsdottir Abstract Paper
Rooftop Solar and the Utilities Death Spiral - a system dynamics analysis, by Conor Meehan Abstract Paper Supporting
Renewable Energy Policy Evaluation Using A System Dynamics Approach: The Case of Oman, by Aisha Al-Sarihi, Marcello Contestabile, Judith Cherni Abstract Paper Supporting
Demineralised Water Production Planning, by Corne Du Plooy, Nalini Sooknanan Pillay Abstract Paper
Hydro Pumped Storage Dynamics, by Mapule Ntsoane, Nalini Sooknanan Pillay, Danie Booyens Abstract Paper
Sustainable energy future: A System Dynamics approach to solving the Electricity shortfall in Ghana, by Benjamin Batinge Abstract Paper Supporting
Workshop:
World Climate and C-ROADS Training, by John Sterman, Andrew Jones, Florian Kapmeier Abstract Link from authors
Security
Parallel: Conflict, Defense, and Security, chaired by Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Volunteer(s): Oleksandr Ivanov
Social Network Dynamics of Insider Threats: A Preliminary Model, by Andrew Moore, Kathleen Carley, Matthew Collins, Neal Altman Abstract Paper
A Simulation Model of Katouzian’s Theory of Arbitrary State and Society, by Saeed Pourmasoumi Langarudi, Michael Radzicki Abstract Paper Supporting
Analyzing the effectiveness of EU Investments in “Managing External Borders”: conceptualization of a qualitative model.-, by Stefano Armenia, Claudia Volpetti Abstract Paper
Poster: Economics, Security, and Operations: Conflict, Defense, and Security
Fighting Foreign Fighters. But What About Potential and Returning Foreign Fighters?, by Erik Pruyt, Stefano Armenia, Riccardo Onori, Arije Antinori, Georgios Tsaples Abstract Paper
Modeling the Threat of ISIS in the Context of Modern Terrorism, by Cecelia Shao Abstract Supporting
Using System Dynamics to Train Army Leaders, by Stephen Sapol, Bruce Keith Abstract Supporting
Human Futures: Investigating Resilient Policy in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector, by Munaf Aamir Abstract
Stakeholder Engagement
Parallel: Organizational Learning Through Stakeholder Engagement, chaired by Laura Black, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin
Endogenous limits and bottlenecks in the absence of explicit capacity constraints, by Khalid Saeed, Keith Harris, Adam Ruege, Lisa Pape, Midhilesh Mulpuri Abstract Paper
A Simulation Game to Promote Systems Thinking and Cross Organizational Collaboration in Government Agencies, by William Ryder Abstract Paper Supporting
Using a System Dynamics Model as a Boundary Object in an Integrative Approach to Regional Water Schemes in South Africa, by Rob van Waas, Jill Slinger, Sander van Splunter Abstract Paper Supporting
Parallel: Exploring Learning through Participation, chaired by Gloria Perez Salazar, Volunteer(s): Babak Bahaddin
Meaning-making in the process of participatory system dynamics research, by Nicole Zimmermann, Laura Black, Clive Shrubsole, Michael Davies Abstract Paper
Boundary Objects for Group Model Building to Explore Oral Health Equity, by Susan Kum, Hua Wang, Zhu Jin, Weiai Xu, Janet Mark, Mary Northridge, Carol Kunzel, Stephen Marshall, Sara Metcalf Abstract Paper
Theory Development in Group Model Building: Progress and Insights, by Jill Kuhlberg Abstract
Poster: Methodology and Learning: Stakeholder Engagement
The Effect of Information Design and Presentation on Decision-Making Strategies and Performance in a Dynamic Environment, by Benjamin Batinge Abstract Paper Supporting
Using Systems Mapping to Inform the Strategic Planning Process in Higher Education, by Hyunjung Kim, Michael Rehg Abstract Paper
Workshop:
Scriptapedia: Introduction to “Scripted” Group Model Building Workshops, by Peter Hovmand, Etiënne Rouwette Abstract
Strategy
Parallel: Support for the Strategy Process, chaired by Stefan Groesser, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
Supporting Strategy using System Dynamics, by Juan Torres, Martin Kunc Abstract
Creating Value in the Merger and Acquisition Integration Process, by Shanie Atkinson, Shayne Gary Abstract Paper
Capturing Managerial Cognition in Chilean Wineries: Hardening a New Method to Elicit and Code Mental Models of Dynamic Systems, by Martin Schaffernicht, Stefan Groesser Abstract
Parallel: Modeling for Identifying Strategy, chaired by Florian Kapmeier, Volunteer(s): Adiba Muminova
Do Stretch Goals Increase or Reduce Investments in Disruptive Innovations?, by Miles Yang, Shayne Gary, Tim Coltman Abstract
Dynamic Balanced Scorecard: Taking stock and looking ahead, by Stefan Katz, Stefan Groesser Abstract
Modeling Graduate Education Management System Using System Dynamics Approach, by Nikolay Merkulov, Nasim Nezamoddini, Nasim Sabounchi Abstract Paper
Poster: Business and Strategy
Politeia’s collegial, high-technology spherical structure, by Nicholas Georgantzas Abstract Paper
Dynamic Risk Assessment on Innovation Risks in the German Machinery and Plant Engineering Industry, by Ralf Dillerup, Daniela Kappler Abstract Paper Supporting
A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Water Infrastructure Asset Management, by Amin Ganjidoost, Carl Haas, Mark Knight, Andre Unger Abstract Paper
Growth Engine Strategy Analysis Based on Lean Startup Approach: Case of a Brazilian Startup, by Josué Medeiros, Marcelo Bezerra, Vitor Calife Abstract Paper Supporting
Integrated Project Delivery Using System Dynamics, by Eddy Susanto, Lukas Sihombing Abstract Paper
Workshop:
Long-Term Dynamics and Enduring Feedback Structure in Love and Supply Chains, by John Morecroft Abstract
Using a Customer Pipeline Model: a hands-on simulation exercise and including feedback from students in a university course, by Jeff Trailer Abstract Supporting