Abstract for: The Transition of the Residential Heat Market in Germany - A Dynamic Simulation Approach
This paper presents a dynamic simulation model for the study of the residential heat market in Germany with regard to the European energy targets for the year 2020. It describes the model properties and specifies the dynamic structures of the demand side based on housing units and of the supply side which is formed by heating systems. An initial model validation indicates the appropriateness of the model assumptions. Five policy scenarios are introduced which take into account different measures for the promotion of renewable and innovative heat generation technologies and obligations for energy-efficient renovation of buildings. The discussion of the scenarios shows that with the given set of policies, the EU targets for heat demand reduction and CO2 emission mitigation in the residential sector would not be met, while the envisaged share of renewable and innovative technologies seems to be achievable.