Abstract for: Four Grand Challenges for System Dynamics: Initial Work and Needed Evolution

The author identifies four "grand challenges" (in the DARPA tradition) for SD, and characterizes the problem domain and the methodological evolutions necessary to bring the solutions into widespread understanding and implementation: 1. Development politics and economics 2. Global warming 3. Harmonious Chinese growth 4. Crises of financial interdependency Five methodological advances seem needed: A. Equal footing of political and physical dynamics B. Explicit simulation of foresight and strategy choice C. Pervasive dissemination D. Use of extensive validation and data E. Use of an ecology of models and purposes