Abstract for: Building a car market share model of Alternative Fuel Vehicles: from generic system archetypes to system dynamics modelling
This study investigates the market barriers in increasing the market share of Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) and possible policy options to overcome them by using a system dynamics model. In particular, this study first conceptualises the AFVs market model by aid of generic system archetypes suggested by Wolstenhome (2003, 2004). Among four generic system archetypes suggestd by Wolstenhome, the market structure of AFVs and conventional cars can be explained by ‘relative achievement’. Starting from the generic system archetype, this study extends the model to take account of various model assumptions. According to the AFVs market model of this study, if there is a significant network effect on vehicle operating costs, it is difficult to achieve the shift to AFV even in the long term without a policy intervention because the car market is locked in to the current structure. There are several possible policy options to break the ‘locked in’ structure of car market, such as subsidy on vehicle price (capital cost), subsidy on fuel (operating cost) and niche management policy.