This paper shows how a system dynamics model can be used to identify policy alternatives and scenarios for a policy space in a natural hazard policy analysis. In this paper, I will present a system dynamics model of the problems faced by decision-makers in a community that experiences flooding. While current policy analysis for hazard mitigation focuses on benefit-cost analysis, I argue that system dynamics can be used to improve the policy analysis and compliment the traditional approach. In this paper, I present a system dynamics model and policy space to illustrate the effectiveness of system dynamics in two respects. First, a system dynamics model designed with a policy space in mind provides the policy analyst with a “map” that effectively identifies policy levers and scenarios in the system. Second, by linking structure with behavior in the policy space, the policy analyst can quickly compare the model behavior of several key indicators over multiple scenarios. The policy space constructed from the system dynamics model identifies both qualitative and quantitative differences in policies. Including a system dynamics model in a policy analysis provides a deeper understanding of the causal structures, which compliments the traditional benefit-cost approaches and improves the overall quality of the analysis.
Key words: policy analysis, natural hazard, flood, mitigation, extreme event, public administration, disaster management, agenda setting